OCT 16 - 31, 2004

VOL. 2 ISSUE 20

OCTOBER 26, 2004 – We M/I’ers know the polls the newspapers are reporting are bunk, that it is just part of the same game run during the 2000 elections, trying to create momentum for Bush’s campaign.

Well, now, as the chump check looms just days away, George Bush and his supporters see their hopes are all but gone.  And so many of the rats are starting to jump ship, hoping if they do it before the disaster becomes official, the Kerry ship might toss them a life saver – or at least not piss on them as they tread water, their boat having sunk rapidly.

Republican insiders are now confirming what we’ve known all along, that the media polls are bunk and Bush is in massive trouble.  From the Washington Post (see article: Candidates Hit Key States With Election Still a Tossup):

“The Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls have indicated, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

“There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error.”

With the coming collapse of the Bush/Limbaughian hold on power, true conservatives are starting to cut bait and do repentance in the form of endorsements of their arch rival.

From The American Conservative, one of the most staunchly anti-Massachusetts Democrat publications on the face of the planet, come multiple ringing endorsements of… the Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, John Kerry.  Check out The American Conservative ("Kerry's The One" and "The War Bin Laden Wanted")

Even the solid South is not so solid for former-President-to-be Bush, as states like Arkansas start to move into Kerry’s camp.

As for the big battleground states, we offer the only brand of polls we have used all along, the unbiased American Research Group polls.  Just released today, new polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all show John Kerry with leads – and this is even before the final crush of independents break his way.  In Florida he is leading 49-46, in Ohio 49-47, and in Pennsylvania he holds a 50-47 advantage.  (see: American Research Group)

Let’s look again at what the Republican insider told the Washington Post:  “And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error.”

In other words, because the late break by undecided goes for the challenger, Bush not only needs to be leading in these polls but by a more than the margin of error.  The reality is he is not only not leading by that margin, but he is trailing, which spells disaster.

So now you see it, the media starting to get the message we called over half a year ago, that this election is going to be a landslide for Kerry.  We estimate he should get anywhere from 320-360 electoral votes, possibly as high as the mid 380’s.

Again and again people have questioned and challenged our call that this election would be a landslide for Kerry.  Now, they are all starting to fall in line, justifying it this way or that, backing it up with new polls or scenarios.

The simple reality is we at M/I simply look a longer-term realities and the big picture.  You have not seen reporting throughout the course of this election that has changed with each day, that has reported “Kerry in trouble” or “Bush surging” or “Bush now falling” all just to cover the fact we reported useless, short-term information just the day or week before, as the rest of the media has.

The non-M/I media makes its living making this as much of a horserace as possible, keeping it as gripping and back-and-forth as possible.  But even more, they are incapable at this point of just simply observing and reporting obvious realities.

And so enjoy this next week as the Bush/Limbaughian rats start to jump ship and figure out how to survive as the hand that fed them gets smacked out of the nation’s cupboard.  Watch the endorsements from formerly Bush-supporting papers continue to pile up, and don’t bother to gloat or mock, because this is not the moment for that.  No, this is the dawning of a new day for America.  All of this is a prelude to the biggest change America will see over the next four years:  the death of Bush-brand polarization.

The Bush/Limbaughians, ramped up by Gingrich’s hypocritical campaign of hate and lies, have divided this nation with their word games, intentionally frustrating distortions, and outright bullying for over a decade now.  But with this second episode of quick defeat, with the second confirmation that they provide nothing but one-term President’s who fail miserably while in office, the Republican Party is sure to go a long way toward exorcising its dishonest, divisive Bush/Limbaughian demons.

And Americans, in voting the Bushies out, will be voting out the stupid rhetoric and conflict.  Still people will disagree on some issues, but the polarizing liars of Bush/Fox/Limbaugh axis of idiocy will be relegated to the radical fringe marginal status they always deserved.

For the past year and a half, we at The Moderate Independent have shared our frustration that what was supposed to be an election was nothing more than a Chump Check.  We rued the fact that when we should be having great policy debates and discussions about the positives and negatives of both candidates, the Bush/Limbaughians had left us with nothing but calling them on their constant lies and attempts and manipulating the public through their domination of the media.

Now, with the coming Kerry/Edwards landslide, we look forward to having more discussions that span the range of both and all sides of all issues, challenging the Democrats and Republicans to speak and act with only two things in mind:  the truth, and what is best for America.

Ladies and gentlemen of America, rejoice, the end of the Bush/Limbaugh reign of divisiveness and destruction is upon us.