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February 5, 2008
– Endorsements are nice, but on this superest of Fat Tuesdays
(Mardi Gras, as they call it down south,) Democratic presidential
hopeful Barack Obama could better use a time machine than any more
helpful nods.
That is because, unfortunately for the
late surger, many Californians cast their votes way ahead of time by
mail. In other words, regardless of where the polls stand
today, many people voted way back when Hillary Clinton had a
double-digit lead. And so Senator O. may miss out on what Eli
Manning had the chance to get - a last minute minute upset against
the once-thought-unbeatable veteran.
And yet, there are still some seconds
left on the clock.
The bigger question all along has been
will people be willing to pull the trigger on a vote for Obama.
Democrats, after suffering through 7+ years of Bush-dealt battering,
haven't been feeling too inclined to gamble. Sure Obama made
them feel like they were young and the nation great again, but he
was too new and unknown to risk ending up with another Bush-clone in
the White House if he turned out to have some skeletons pop out in
the general.
However, two things have changed in the
past couple of weeks.
The win in South Carolina has not been
as big as two other things: 1) the Kennedy endorsements,
and, more importantly, 2) the ascent of John McCain.
Why the Kennedy thing helps is pretty
self-explanatory - if the venerable K-troupe can put their faith in
BO, suddenly he's not a scary, unknown quantity. Ted would
know him first-hand from having worked with him in the Senate, and
the Kennedys don't cast about assurances lightly.
The bigger deal, however, is the seeming
arrival of a GOP candidate who is, by all estimations, not so scary.
That doesn't mean not so scary in terms of how hard he will be to
compete against. By not so scary, I mean not so Bush-like; not
so Limbaugh-friendly. In fact, the people the Democrats
despise most despise McCain.
John McCain voted against the Bush tax
cuts. And he has to protest and protest to claim conservatism,
while the Bush types protested their moderation to hide their
conservatism. The fact that McCain is not a horrifying
prospect is emboldening to those who wish they could take the Obama
gamble.
But to take it all one step further,
when you picture the two potential match-ups - Clinton/McCain vs.
Obama/McCain - something begins to become apparent. In a
Clinton/McCain race, you have two relatively uncharismatic, toned
down, not-so-inspiring old timers. It will come down to a
contest centering around lots and LOTS of really, REALLY boring
policy discussions - all of which we already know beforehand.
However, Obama's strongest point - his
charisma - jumps all over McCain's weakest point. McCain seems
very low on energy these days, and he is not a very interesting
speaker any longer. His age has really set in. People
who would support McCain would do it simply out of policy matters.
And McCain's base of Republicans would only be luke warm toward his
candidacy since he is not a Bush-brand right-wing corporatist.
Obama, on the other hand, has the
passion. He has the charisma. And he has his base
fired-up and ready to launch unlike it's been in a generation.
What Obama lacks, however, is what
McCain has the most of - experience, and trust at being able to
handle foreign policy. That is also Hillary's stronger point.
And so in that case, she neutralizes McCain better.
But as voters head to the polls today,
they are bit more free to put a buck on Barack. With the
Kennedys' cosignatures, maybe two bucks.
This is the likely reason for the shift
in the national polls. This time, it is not right-wing media
domination. It is simply the Obama factor - this is the first
time the left has had a powerful, charismatic liberal since, yes,
JFK. Dukakis, Mondale - the left got their meat, but is was
fatty ground beef. My mother has often wondered aloud what the
heck happened to the Democrats; how did they become the party of
wimps that was seen as weak on foreign policy. Roosevelt,
Kennedy - the Democrats were always strong, she'd say.
Have you heard anyone call Obama whiny?
Bleeding heart? Lilly-livered?
It is the return of the power Dem.
Ok, now back to Hillary.
See what I mean? Dull.
And yet, the Bush era, combined with
Hillary's positive assets, will still push lots of people her way.
What does this all amount to? It
amounts to this: while just a couple of weeks ago Super
Tuesday was the end date for the actual campaign, it is real that it
may not be that at all - in fact, it likely isn't.
Who'd have thought our nation would have
two moderates and a lefty as the final three left standing?
If McCain ascends tomorrow, then
February 5, 2008 can be marked down as the official date the
Conservative Era of America came to an end. It will be the
historical moment at which the American people said they no longer
buy the voodoo fund-the-rich, fuel-the-fear evangelism that has
dominated for three decades.
And Hillary Clinton is in the perilous
position of being too aligned to that dying era that she may be
ushered out along with the Bush/Reaganites. Her husband
ascended to power by declaring himself half and half. Well, by
the new estimation, that makes the Clintons half bad.
Experienced. But half bad.
And don't forget the dirtiest little
secret no one is talking about - in California, "Independents" can
vote in the Democratic primary, but not in the GOP race. And,
as one GOP activist told me, his rich, gated-community Republican
buddies have all gone and registered Independent so they can vote
for Obama - not because they like him, but because they think the
new guy with the Muslim father and the middle name Hussein will be
easy to beat.
You know, they just might want to
reconsider the fight they're picking.
Before I sign off - lest you forget how
nasty and brutal the Bush right's lying propaganda is, look at
this McCain smear, claiming his time as a POW was spent living
it up in a nice apartment with two prostitutes.
Think the relatively unknown Hussein
Osama - I mean Hussein Obama - with the Muslim father who was
schooled in Indonesia will be able to neutralize the onslaught?
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