Watch for the Pivot - The Tale of Obama - and America - is About to be Told

by

Jeffrey D. Klein

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January 1, 2010 – We have not seen President Barack Obama yet.

Obama's first year was a whirlwind of crisis and payback.  I don't know about you, but if I was given the White House, had to fill thousands of positions while keeping the country going, as the economy was collapsing and two wars were occurring, I might be a bit on autopilot/let-those-who've-been-there-tell-me mode as Barack has been.  There are those who are like dogs - President Bush was one - who don't wait to assess or get a feel, but just come out barking and running and do a lot while thinking a little.  Then there are those who are like cats - cautious at first, keep off to a corner, test the waters a bit, sniff around, assess things, begin to mark their territory, and make sure to have a clear picture of the situation before venturing out boldly.

Barack's early days have been marked by him deferring to financial 'experts' and focusing on an issue as a tribute/payback to the late Senator Ted Kennedy.  If you know how politics goes, you understood that this is why health care reform was first and foremost.  It was some Kennedy friends who spotted Obama while at Obama who pushed him to run and helped make it possible.  It was Kennedy breaking with the Clinton's to endorse Obama and giving a rather brave, moving convention speech that helped Obama win the primaries and the White House.  And so, as the Massachusetts Senator ailed, the tribute had to be done.  I'm sure it was hoped that it would be done before Kennedy passed.

In any case, this explains what has happened this first year and why it doesn't necessarily jibe with what Barack Obama promised while running for office.  It also seems to indicate that we have yet to really see Obama take the reigns, and so don't really know what will occur when he actually grabs the reigns of the Presidency for himself - which he will.  We've seen how Obama works when the question of what next for Afghanistan came up.  Obama showed himself not to be a Bush-brand dog, but a cat.  He didn't just jump and bark an order, he wanted to go away on his own and have time to assess.  Like a cat as well, he wanted to make his own independent choice, unlike a dog who just wants to do what will make the master happy.

Now, the health care reform is done and out of the way, and Obama has had a chance to get a feel for the office.  What's next on the agenda is wide open, and you can bet his days of just letting others and other obiligations guide the course is about to end.

But what will this mean.  Who is Barack Obama really, and what does he stand for and believe?  Is he the man who promised an Apollo-like push for alternative energy, to reverse the Bush tax cuts, to take on free trade, offshoring, outsourcing?  Is he the man who understood the economy needed fundamental change, a paradigm shift, and would take years to get back on track, or does he actually believe the jobs are about to come back and a massive amount of borrowing/stimulus was all that is needed.

There are clues, and I have to say they sound rather promising.  In a recent interview, Obama brought up the push for alternative energy as the way to fix the economy and secure the nation.  That is what the nation wants to hear and see.  Health care, people didn't understand why that was the priority.  But to hear just the couple of blurbs from Obama talking about how we need to hit the green economy to grow our way out of our mess...

The thing is, you can't tell yet if that is what he will focus on.  The Republicans will do everything to try and throw him off by attacking him on foreign policy, trying to bog him down in Iran and the two wars.  And it can be known yet which Obama is the real Obama.

But over these next few months, you are about to see the pivot.  Obama is about to finally step out on his own.  Like a cat, he is a leader.  We saw with his choice with regard to Afghanistan that he is ready to put his paw down and set his own distinct course.

There are some really good things that have occurred over this first year - unlike during any point of the Bush administration.  The legislation that fixed credit cards by ending banks' abilities to randomly change rates, etc. was a vastly important piece of legislation that Republicans never would have considered, never mind passed.  Though not taking on free trade strongly as of yet, Obama did fire a shot or two across the bow, such as when he chose to impose tariffs on Chinese tires.  That was no small statement, nor was it something the previous administration would have ever done.  The EPA has labeled CO2 as a public health hazard that can be regulated.  These are all massive steps in the right direction, though they have flown somewhat under the radar - very possibly because the media prefers to report what conservatives what to focus on, and it is hard to make arguments against these choices.

So there has been quiet progress.  And there has been the not-so-quiet progress of the health care bill.  Think what you want about the overall bill, there is what seems to be a distinctly Obama stamp in there - and very heady and important change that, again, would never had occurred to or occurred under the previous administration.  That is, there is a shift of focus within the bill on paying doctors based on patient improvement rather than doctors getting paid when patients are sick.  This is one of the fundamental issues with health care currently.  If you go to your doctor with high cholesterol and the beginning of heart disease and the doctor tells you to go exercise and change your diet and you do, that is the best outcome for the patient, and the best outcome for health care costs, but the worst outcome currently for the doctor.  The doctor would do much better to prescribe medication or heart surgery and medication, financially speaking.  Under the new bill, pay focus begins to shift so that doctors would get paid not just for treating and treating a patient, but if the patient's health improves.  Prescribing exercise suddenly not only makes sense, but dollars.  Why aren't doctors allowed to prescribe personal trainers and specific exercise, which is cheaper and more effective than medicine.  This bill takes a first step toward that - and this can be a huge step not just for health care costs, but for the public health in general.

There's a lot of good that has happened.  There has been some real bad that has occurred, such as the multi-trillion dollar bailouts and stimulus.  But watch now for the pivot.  The Obama Presidency is about to make a significant change - at least it seems so.  We are likely about to at last see what Obama is about and what the next three years will be for America.  I honestly can't tell if Barack Obama is just a people pleaser who will keep handing money to everyone to make them happy, bankrupting the nation in the process; or if he is about to make some really smart moves, a true push toward alternative energy, a focus on bringing American jobs back home, more progress toward combating Global Warming, and, not least, a real reversal of conservative economics/the beginning of the paradigm shift he promised.

It can't be said which will occur.  But I will say for the first time in some decades there is a glimmer of hope.  If the Obama pivot is the one that spins toward his large vision view of a green economic push to save the nation, this could get good. 

Sit tight, and pray.  If a few months, we will now if we are in desperate trouble, or about to, at last, begin our climb back toward true strength and greatness.